Betting on draws is not an exciting type of bet but it can be one of the most profitable because it’s not unusual to find value on the least chosen outcome.
Most amateur bettors are recreational punters who want to pick winners.
They want to share the success with friends and even better if the winner is the team they support.
It is also a matter of ego to say: I was right!
It is not about betting on the winner only as a favourite. Even the underdog high odds are attractive with the aim of a big reward.
Those are all choices far from the logic of a value bet you made to get a profit.
Amateurs bettors first bet with emotion and then justify the choice with logic.
The bookmakers know that very well.
If punters bet very much on winning teams, the bookmaker revises down their odds to attract money on the draw. However, bettors continue to bet on winning teams regardless of their dropping odds, just to support the choice they made previously.
More people do the same thing the less valuable it is and more valuable is the different thing: betting on draws.
Great news for the draw!
Now that the odds are above the fair price, they are good enough for a value investment.
How to start betting on draws ?
When chasing draws, don’t expect a 50% winning percentage. Not even 40%. Most draw betting strategies demand that you should pursue a profit at a winning percentage of around 30%. Even a two match acca can be profitable. Don’t push your luck though with fourfolds and fivefolds, unless you are willing to lose that extra bit of money.
Just look at two different 1X2 odds sets: The one with a strong home favorite at 1,65-3,30-5,75 and the other most well-balanced at 2,60-3,30-2,80 odds. What do you notice? That the draw result has the same odds (3,30). According to what odds describe, the draw result has the same possibility to come true in both matches. Right? Wrong! This is the bizarre thing about the odds and one of the most common mistakes punters fall in when they chase draws.
Another glance at the odds sets will reveal a huge difference: At the first set (1,65-3,30-5,75) the draw result is the SECOND HIGHER outcome, but in the second set (2,60-3,30-2,80) it’s the HIGHEST. According to the bookies, the chances of a draw are higher when it has the middle value of the three and lower when it has the higher. The faster you realize that, the faster you can make out two different lists of possible draw results: The ones where the underdog value is higher (in many cases much higher) than the draw and the one where both teams winning odds are lower than the draw.
Where to bet on draws
There are plenty of good bookmakers out there with high odds but if you want to find value on draws consistently you should use a betting exchange such as betfair. On betting exchanges it’s even easier to find high draw odds because the pressure on the other outcomes is even higher and the odds are more fairly set.
Start looking at this type of bet and your profits will increase. Trust me!
Good luck and happy betting!