Value betting is an art. It’s the art of beating the bookies at their own game. It’s not an easy task but once you get the hang of it your life will change.
It might seem something esoteric but value betting is actually a simple concept.
What is value betting?
Value betting is the ability to identify odds with an implied probability higher than it should be.
Value is a common phrase used in financial investment and has the same meaning in sports betting – if a selection’s probability of occurring is less than it should be, then there is an opportunity for a value bet.
Probability and odds
To find value you have to understand the relationship between odds and probability
The simplest example is tossing a coin. Everyone knows you have 50% chance on each outcome which translates into a decimal odd of 2.00. If you’re offered an odd of 2.10 you found a value bet!
Markets prone to value betting
When looking for value think about outcomes that people tend to overlook, outcomes with low appetite.
Think of underdogs or my favorite: betting on draws.
Draws are among the most common outcomes to find value, especially on betting exchanges.
How to identify value bets
Nurturing a sense of value isn’t easy. Let’s look at how you can improve your likelihood of finding value bets.
Set your own odds
Like financial analysts, value bettors should calculate their own odds for a market using all information available to them. By calculating your own probabilities, you can compare them to the bookmakers and notice if a selection is undervalued or overvalued.
I suggest calculating your odds BEFORE looking at any bookmaker to avoid being influenced.
If you have problems converting odds into probability use an odds converter.
This is the most important step. One you have your own odds you can easily decide if a bet is valuable or not.
Good luck and happy betting!